Potential impact of diabetes prevention on mortality and future burden of dementia and disability: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Aims/hypothesis

Diabetes is associated with an increased risk of dementia. We estimated the potential impact of trends in diabetes prevalence upon mortality and the future burden of dementia and disability in England and Wales.

Methods

We used a probabilistic multi-state, open cohort Markov model to integrate observed trends in diabetes, cardiovascular disease and dementia to forecast the occurrence of disability and dementia up to the year 2060. Model input data were taken from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Office for National Statistics vital data and published effect estimates for health-state transition probabilities. The baseline scenario corresponded to recent trends in obesity: a 26% increase in the number of people with diabetes by 2060. This scenario was

SUBMITTER: Bandosz P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6890625 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature