Range-dependent thresholds for global flood early warning.

ABSTRACT: Early warning systems (EWS) for river flooding are strategic tools for effective disaster risk management in many world regions. When driven by ensemble Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP), flood EWS can provide skillful streamflow forecasts beyond the monthly time scale in large river basins. Yet, effective flood detection is challenged by accurate estimation of warning thresholds that identify specific hazard levels along the entire river network and forecast horizon. This research describes a novel approach to estimate warning thresholds which retain statistical consistency with the operational forecasts at all lead times. The procedure is developed in the context of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). A 21-year forecast-consistent dataset is used to derive thresholds with globa

SUBMITTER: Alfieri L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6894274 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature