An Evaluation of Survival Curve Extrapolation Techniques Using Long-Term Observational Cancer Data.

ABSTRACT: Objectives. Uncertainty in survival prediction beyond trial follow-up is highly influential in cost-effectiveness analyses of oncology products. This research provides an empirical evaluation of the accuracy of alternative methods and recommendations for their implementation. Methods. Mature (15-year) survival data were reconstructed from a published database study for "no treatment," radiotherapy, surgery plus radiotherapy, and surgery in early stage non-small cell lung cancer in an elderly patient population. Censored data sets were created from these data to simulate immature trial data (for 1- to 10-year follow-up). A second data set with mature (9-year) survival data for no treatment was used to extrapolate the predictions from models fitted to the first data set. Six methodological a

SUBMITTER: Vickers A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6900572 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature