The impact of population ageing on end-of-life care in Scotland: projections of place of death and recommendations for future service provision.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Global annual deaths are rising. It is essential to examine where future deaths may occur to facilitate decisions regarding future service provision and resource allocation. AIMS:To project where people will die from 2017 to 2040 in an ageing country with advanced integrated palliative care, and to prioritise recommendations based on these trends. METHODS:Population-based trend analysis of place of death for people that died in Scotland (2004-2016) and projections using simple linear modelling (2017-2040); Transparent Expert Consultation to prioritise recommendations in response to projections. RESULTS:Deaths are projected to increase by 15.9% from 56,728 in 2016 (32.8% aged 85+ years) to 65,757 deaths in 2040 (45% aged 85+ years). Between 2004 and 2016, proportions of home and

SUBMITTER: Finucane AM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6907353 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature