Spatially Adjusted Time-varying Reproductive Numbers: Understanding the Geographical Expansion of Urban Dengue Outbreaks.

ABSTRACT: The basic reproductive number (R₀) is a fundamental measure used to quantify the transmission potential of an epidemic in public health practice. However, R₀ cannot reflect the time-varying nature of an epidemic. A time-varying effective reproductive number R_t can provide more information because it tracks the subsequent evolution of transmission. However, since it neglects individual-level geographical variations in exposure risk, R_t may smooth out interpersonal heterogeneous transmission potential, obscure high-risk spreaders, and hence hamper the effectiveness of control measures in spatial dimension. Therefore, this study proposes a new method for quantifying spatially adjusted (time-varying) reproductive numbers that reflects spatial heterog

SUBMITTER: Ng TC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6914775 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature