The cresting wave: larval settlement and ocean temperatures predict change in the American lobster harvest.

ABSTRACT: Adding to the challenge of predicting fishery recruitment in a changing environment is downscaling predictions to capture locally divergent trends over a species' range. In recent decades, the American lobster (Homarus americanus) fishery has shifted poleward along the northwest Atlantic coast, one of the most rapidly warming regions of the world's oceans. Building on evidence that early post-settlement life stages predict future fishery recruitment, we describe enhancements to a forecasting model that predict landings using an annual larval settlement index from 62 fixed sites among 10 study areas from Rhode Island, USA to New Brunswick, Canada. The model is novel because it incorporates local bottom temperature and disease prevalence to scale spatial and temporal changes in growth and mo

SUBMITTER: Oppenheim NG 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6916173 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature