The Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model and the r-hybrid model: new tools for estimating HIV incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:Improve models for estimating HIV epidemic trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). DESIGN:Mathematical epidemic model fit to national HIV survey and ANC sentinel surveillance (ANC-SS) data. METHODS:We modified EPP to incorporate age and sex stratification (EPP-ASM) to more accurately capture the shifting demographics of maturing HIV epidemics. Secondly, we developed a new functional form for the HIV transmission rate, termed 'r-hybrid', which combines a four-parameter logistic function for the initial epidemic growth, peak, and decline followed by a first-order random walk for recent trends after epidemic stabilization. We fitted the r-hybrid model along with previously developed r-spline and r-trend models to HIV prevalence data from household surveys and ANC-SS in 177 regions in 3

SUBMITTER: Eaton JW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6919231 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature