Solar Energetic Particle Forecasting Algorithms and Associated False Alarms.

ABSTRACT: Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are known to occur following solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). However, some high-energy solar events do not result in SEPs being detected at Earth, and it is these types of event which may be termed "false alarms". We define two simple SEP forecasting algorithms based upon the occurrence of a magnetically well-connected CME with a speed in excess of 1500kms-1 (a "fast" CME) or a well-connected X-class flare and analyse them with respect to historical datasets. We compare the parameters of those solar events which produced an enhancement of >40MeV protons at Earth (an "SEP event") and the parameters of false alarms. We find that an SEP forecasting algorithm based solely upon the occurrence of a well-connected fast CME produces fewer false

SUBMITTER: Swalwell B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6953974 | biostudies-literature | 2017

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature