A comparison of the beta-geometric model with landmarking for dynamic prediction of time to pregnancy.

ABSTRACT: We conducted a simulation study to compare two methods that have been recently used in clinical literature for the dynamic prediction of time to pregnancy. The first is landmarking, a semi-parametric method where predictions are updated as time progresses using the patient subset still at risk at that time point. The second is the beta-geometric model that updates predictions over time from a parametric model estimated on all data and is specific to applications with a discrete time to event outcome. The beta-geometric model introduces unobserved heterogeneity by modelling the chance of an event per discrete time unit according to a beta distribution. Due to selection of patients with lower chances as time progresses, the predicted probability of an event decreases over time. Both methods

SUBMITTER: van Eekelen R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6973003 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature