Predicting the long-term impact of voluntary medical male circumcision on HIV incidence among men who have sex with men in Beijing, China.

ABSTRACT: Using a deterministic compartmental modeling procedure to fit prevalence from 2005-2015, we projected new HIV cases during 2016-2026 under different coverage rates ranging from 0.0001 (at baseline) to 0.15 (an optimistic assumption) with simulations on varying transmission rates, model calibration to match historical data, and sensitivity analyses for different assumptions. Compared with the baseline (λ = 0.0001), we found the new HIV cases would reduce with the increase of coverage rates of the voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) among men who have sex wtih men (MSM). The higher the coverage rate, the lower the new HIV incidence would be. As one of the first studies to model the potential impact of VMMC among MSM in China, our model suggested a modest to the significant publ

SUBMITTER: Zhang C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6981072 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature