Insignificant QBO-MJO Prediction Skill Relationship in the SubX and S2S Subseasonal Reforecasts.

ABSTRACT: The impact of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) on the prediction of the tropospheric Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is evaluated in reforecasts from nine models participating in subseasonal prediction projects, including the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) and Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) projects. When MJO prediction skill is analyzed for December to February, MJO prediction skill is higher in the easterly phase of the QBO than the westerly phase, consistent with previous studies. However, the relationship between QBO phase and MJO prediction skill is not statistically significant for most models. This insignificant QBO-MJO skill relationship is further confirmed by comparing two subseasonal reforecast experiments with the Community Earth System Model v1 using both a hig

SUBMITTER: Kim H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6988457 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature