Ebola virus disease outbreak in Korea: use of a mathematical model and stochastic simulation to estimate risk.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

According to the World Health Organization, there have been frequent reports of Ebola virus disease (EVD) since the 2014 EVD pandemic in West Africa. We aim to estimate the outbreak scale when an EVD infected person arrives in Korea.

Methods

Western Africa EVD epidemic mathematical model SEIJR or SEIJQR was modified to create a Korean EVD outbreak model. The expected number of EVD patients and outbreak duration were calculated by stochastic simulation under the scenarios of Best case, Diagnosis delay, and Case missing.

Results

The 2,000 trials of stochastic simulation for each scenario demonstrated the following results: The possible median number of patients is 2 and the estimated maximum number is 11 when the government intervention is proceeded immediate

SUBMITTER: Ko Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7005456 | biostudies-literature | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature