Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change.

ABSTRACT: Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) is a fungal disease endemic to the southwestern United States. Across this region, temperature and precipitation influence the extent of the endemic region and number of Valley fever cases. Climate projections for the western United States indicate that temperatures will increase and precipitation patterns will shift, which may alter disease dynamics. We estimated the area potentially endemic to Valley fever using a climate niche model derived from contemporary climate and disease incidence data. We then used our model with projections of climate from Earth system models to assess how endemic areas will change during the 21st century. By 2100 in a high warming scenario, our model predicts that the area of climate-limited endemicity will more than double, t

SUBMITTER: Gorris ME 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7007157 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature