Can syndromic surveillance help forecast winter hospital bed pressures in England?

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Health care planners need to predict demand for hospital beds to avoid deterioration in health care. Seasonal demand can be affected by respiratory illnesses which in England are monitored using syndromic surveillance systems. Therefore, we investigated the relationship between syndromic data and daily emergency hospital admissions. METHODS:We compared the timing of peaks in syndromic respiratory indicators and emergency hospital admissions, between 2013 and 2018. Furthermore, we created forecasts for daily admissions and investigated their accuracy when real-time syndromic data were included. RESULTS:We found that syndromic indicators were sensitive to changes in the timing of peaks in seasonal disease, especially influenza. However, each year, peak demand for hospital beds occ

SUBMITTER: Morbey RA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7010388 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature