Risk Prediction Score for HIV Infection: Development and Internal Validation with Cross-Sectional Data from Men Who Have Sex with Men in China.

ABSTRACT: Receptive anal intercourse, multiple partners, condomless sex, sexually transmitted infections (STIs), and drug/alcohol addiction are familiar factors that correlate with increased human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk among men who have sex with men (MSM). To improve estimation to HIV acquisition, we created a composite score using questions from routine survey of 3588 MSM in Beijing, China. The HIV prevalence was 13.4%. A risk scoring tool using penalized maximum likelihood multivariable logistic regression modeling was developed, deploying backward step-down variable selection to obtain a reduced-form model. The full penalized model included 19 sexual predictors, while the reduced-form model had 12 predictors. Both models calibrated well; bootstrap-corrected c-indices were 0.70 (full

SUBMITTER: Yin L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7024582 | biostudies-literature | 2018 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature