Modeling Approaches to Predicting Persistent Hotspots in SCORE Studies for Gaining Control of Schistosomiasis Mansoni in Kenya and Tanzania.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Some villages, labeled "persistent hotspots (PHS)," fail to respond adequately in regard to prevalence and intensity of infection to mass drug administration (MDA) for schistosomiasis. Early identification of PHS, for example, before initiating or after 1 or 2 years of MDA could help guide programmatic decision making. METHODS:In a study with multiple rounds of MDA, data collected before the third MDA were used to predict PHS. We assessed 6 predictive approaches using data from before MDA and after 2 rounds of annual MDA from Kenya and Tanzania. RESULTS:Generalized linear models with variable selection possessed relatively stable performance compared with tree-based methods. Models applied to Kenya data alone or combined data from Kenya and Tanzania could reach over 80% predicti

SUBMITTER: Shen Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7026890 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature