Predicting future climate at high spatial and temporal resolution.

ABSTRACT: Most studies on the biological effects of future climatic changes rely on seasonally aggregated, coarse-resolution data. Such data mask spatial and temporal variability in microclimate driven by terrain, wind and vegetation, and ultimately bear little resemblance to the conditions that organisms experience in the wild. Here, I present the methods for providing fine-grained, hourly and daily estimates of current and future temperature and soil moisture over decadal timescales. Observed climate data and spatially coherent probabilistic projections of daily future weather were disaggregated to hourly and used to drive empirically calibrated physical models of thermal and hydrological microclimates. Mesoclimatic effects (cold-air drainage, coastal exposure and elevation) were determined from t

SUBMITTER: Maclean IMD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7027457 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature