Dataset Information

Emergence of oscillations in a simple epidemic model with demographic data.

ABSTRACT: A simple susceptible-infectious-removed epidemic model for smallpox, with birth and death rates based on historical data, produces oscillatory dynamics with remarkably accurate periodicity. Stochastic population data cause oscillations to be sustained rather than damped, and data analysis regarding the oscillations provides insights into the same set of population data. Notably, oscillations arise naturally from the model, instead of from a periodic forcing term or other exogenous mechanism that guarantees oscillation: the model has no such mechanism. These emergent natural oscillations display appropriate periodicity for smallpox, even when the model is applied to different locations and populations. The model and datasets, in turn, offer new observations about disease dynamics and solution trajectories. These results call for renewed attention to relatively simple models, in combination with datasets from real outbreaks.

SUBMITTER: Greer M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7029885 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Emergence of oscillations in a simple epidemic model with demographic data.

Greer Meredith M Saha Raj R Gogliettino Alex A Yu Chialin C Zollo-Venecek Kyle K

Royal Society open science 20200129 1

A simple susceptible-infectious-removed epidemic model for smallpox, with birth and death rates based on historical data, produces oscillatory dynamics with remarkably accurate periodicity. Stochastic population data cause oscillations to be sustained rather than damped, and data analysis regarding the oscillations provides insights into the same set of population data. Notably, oscillations arise naturally from the model, instead of from a periodic forcing term or other exogenous mechanism that ...[more]

PMID: 32218949

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Project description:Ongoing oscillations and evoked responses are two main types of neuronal activity obtained with diverse electrophysiological recordings (EEG/MEG/iEEG/LFP). Although typically studied separately, they might in fact be closely related. One possibility to unite them is to demonstrate that neuronal oscillations have non-zero mean which predicts that stimulus- or task-triggered amplitude modulation of oscillations can contribute to the generation of evoked responses. We validated this mechanism using computational modelling and analysis of a large EEG data set. With a biophysical model, we indeed demonstrated that intracellular currents in the neuron are asymmetric and, consequently, the mean of alpha oscillations is non-zero. To understand the effect that neuronal currents exert on oscillatory mean, we varied several biophysical and morphological properties of neurons in the network, such as voltage-gated channel densities, length of dendrites, and intensity of incoming stimuli. For a very large range of model parameters, we observed evidence for non-zero mean of oscillations. Complimentary, we analysed empirical rest EEG recordings of 90 participants (50 young, 40 elderly) and, with spatio-spectral decomposition, detected at least one spatially-filtred oscillatory component of non-zero mean alpha oscillations in 93% of participants. In order to explain a complex relationship between the dynamics of amplitude-envelope and corresponding baseline shifts, we performed additional simulations with simple oscillators coupled with different time delays. We demonstrated that the extent of spatial synchronisation may obscure macroscopic estimation of alpha rhythm modulation while leaving baseline shifts unchanged. Overall, our results predict that amplitude modulation of neural oscillations should at least partially explain the generation of evoked responses. Therefore, inference about changes in evoked responses with respect to cognitive conditions, age or neuropathologies should be constructed while taking into account oscillatory neuronal dynamics.

Dataset Information

Emergence of oscillations in a simple epidemic model with demographic data.

Publications

Emergence of oscillations in a simple epidemic model with demographic data.

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