Mortality impact of achieving WHO cervical cancer elimination targets: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Canfell K
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7043006 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Mortality impact of achieving WHO cervical cancer elimination targets: a comparative modelling analysis in 78 low-income and lower-middle-income countries.
Canfell Karen K Kim Jane J JJ Brisson Marc M Keane Adam A Simms Kate T KT Caruana Michael M Burger Emily A EA Martin Dave D Nguyen Diep T N DTN Bénard Élodie É Sy Stephen S Regan Catherine C Drolet Mélanie M Gingras Guillaume G Laprise Jean-Francois JF Torode Julie J Smith Megan A MA Fidarova Elena E Trapani Dario D Bray Freddie F Ilbawi Andre A Broutet Nathalie N Hutubessy Raymond R
Lancet (London, England) 20200130 10224
<h4>Background</h4>WHO is developing a global strategy towards eliminating cervical cancer as a public health problem, which proposes an elimination threshold of four cases per 100 000 women and includes 2030 triple-intervention coverage targets for scale-up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to 90%, twice-lifetime cervical screening to 70%, and treatment of pre-invasive lesions and invasive cancer to 90%. We assessed the impact of achieving the 90-70-90 triple-intervention targets on cer ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundThe WHO Director-General has issued a call for action to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem. To help inform global efforts, we modelled potential human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and cervical screening scenarios in low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) to examine the feasibility and timing of elimination at different thresholds, and to estimate the number of cervical cancer cases averted on the path to elimination.MethodsThe WHO Cervical Cancer Elimination Modelling Consortium (CCEMC), which consists of three independent transmission-dynamic models identified by WHO according to predefined criteria, projected reductions in cervical cancer incidence over time in 78 LMICs for three standardised base-case scenarios: girls-only vaccination; girls-only vaccination and once-lifetime screening; and girls-only vaccination and twice-lifetime screening. Girls were vaccinated at age 9 years (with a catch-up to age 14 years), assuming 90% coverage and 100% lifetime protection against HPV types 16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58. Cervical screening involved HPV testing once or twice per lifetime at ages 35 years and 45 years, with uptake increasing from 45% (2023) to 90% (2045 onwards). The elimination thresholds examined were an average age-standardised cervical cancer incidence of four or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years and ten or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, and an 85% or greater reduction in incidence. Sensitivity analyses were done, varying vaccination and screening strategies and assumptions. We summarised results using the median (range) of model predictions.FindingsGirls-only HPV vaccination was predicted to reduce the median age-standardised cervical cancer incidence in LMICs from 19·8 (range 19·4-19·8) to 2·1 (2·0-2·6) cases per 100 000 women-years over the next century (89·4% [86·2-90·1] reduction), and to avert 61·0 million (60·5-63·0) cases during this period. Adding twice-lifetime screening reduced the incidence to 0·7 (0·6-1·6) cases per 100 000 women-years (96·7% [91·3-96·7] reduction) and averted an extra 12·1 million (9·5-13·7) cases. Girls-only vaccination was predicted to result in elimination in 60% (58-65) of LMICs based on the threshold of four or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, in 99% (89-100) of LMICs based on the threshold of ten or fewer cases per 100 000 women-years, and in 87% (37-99) of LMICs based on the 85% or greater reduction threshold. When adding twice-lifetime screening, 100% (71-100) of LMICs reached elimination for all three thresholds. In regions in which all countries can achieve cervical cancer elimination with girls-only vaccination, elimination could occur between 2059 and 2102, depending on the threshold and region. Introducing twice-lifetime screening accelerated elimination by 11-31 years. Long-term vaccine protection was required for elimination.InterpretationPredictions were consistent across our three models and suggest that high HPV vaccination coverage of girls can lead to cervical cancer elimination in most LMICs by the end of the century. Screening with high uptake will expedite reductions and will be necessary to eliminate cervical cancer in countries with the highest burden.FundingWHO, UNDP, UN Population Fund, UNICEF-WHO-World Bank Special Program of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction, Canadian Institute of Health Research, Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Compute Canada, National Health and Medical Research Council Australia Centre for Research Excellence in Cervical Cancer Control.
| S-EPMC7043009 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Cervical cancer is a malignant tumour that occurs in the cervix and is classified into two histological types, adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC); SCC is more common and accounts for 70% of all cases. In 2018 there were ~569,000 new cases of cervical cancer diagnosed worldwide and ~311,000 deaths were attributed to cervical cancer. Of these, between 84 and 90% occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as South Africa, India, China and Brazil. The most common cause of cervical cancer is persistent infection caused by the sexually transmitted human papilloma virus. Other factors that contribute to the incidence of cervical cancer include geography, traditional practices and beliefs, the screening levels, socioeconomic status, healthcare access, public awareness, use of oral contraceptives, smoking and co-infection with HIV. An estimated 11 million women from LMICs will be diagnosed with cervical cancer in the next 10-20 years. The aim of this review was to explore various types of genetic and epigenetic factors that influence the development, progression or suppression of cervical cancer.
| S-EPMC7400218 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThe COVID-19 pandemic had devastating health and socioeconomic effects, partly due to policy decisions to mitigate them. Little evidence exists of approaches that guided decisions in settings with limited pre-pandemic modelling capacity. We thus sought to identify knowledge translation mechanisms, enabling factors and structures needed to effectively translate modelled evidence into policy decisions.MethodsWe used convergent mixed methods in a participatory action approach, with quantitative data from a survey and qualitative data from a scoping review, in-depth interviews and workshop notes. Participants included researchers and policy actors involved in COVID-19 evidence generation and decision-making. They were mostly from lower- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America. Quantitative and qualitative data integration occurred during data analysis through triangulation and during reporting in a narrative synthesis.ResultsWe engaged 147 researchers and 57 policy actors from 28 countries. We found that the strategies required to use modelled evidence effectively include capacity building of modelling expertise and communication, improved data infrastructure, sustained funding and dedicated knowledge translation platforms. The common knowledge translation mechanisms used during the pandemic included policy briefs, face-to-face debriefings and dashboards. Some enabling factors for knowledge translation comprised solid relationships and open communication between researchers and policymakers, credibility of researchers, co-production of policy questions and embedding researchers in policymaking spaces. Barriers included competition among modellers, negative attitude of policymakers towards research, political influences and demand for quick outputs.ConclusionWe provide a contextualised understanding of knowledge translation for LMICs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, we share key lessons on how knowledge translation from mathematical modelling complements the broader learning agenda related to pandemic preparedness and long-term investments in evidence-to-policy translation. Our findings led to the co-development of a knowledge translation framework useful in various settings to guide decision-making, especially for public health emergencies.
| S-EPMC11552008 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Chronic diseases are increasingly becoming a health burden in lower- and middle-income countries, putting pressure on public health efforts to scale up interventions. This article reviews current efforts in interventions on a population and individual level. Population-level interventions include ongoing efforts to reduce smoking rates, reduce intake of salt and trans-fatty acids, and increase physical activity in increasingly sedentary populations. Individual-level interventions include control and treatment of risk factors for chronic diseases and secondary prevention. This review also discusses the barriers in interventions, particularly those specific to low- and middle-income countries. Continued discussion of proven cost-effective interventions for chronic diseases in the developing world will be useful for improving public health policy.
| S-EPMC3686269 | biostudies-other
Project description:ImportanceMany randomized clinical trials (RCTs) led by high-income countries (HICs) now enroll patients from lower middle-income countries (LMICs) and upper middle-income countries (UMICs). Although enrolling diverse populations promotes research collaborations, there are issues regarding which countries participate in RCTs and how this participation may contribute to global research.ObjectiveTo describe which UMICs and LMICs participate in RCTs led by HICs.Design, setting, and participantsA cross-sectional study of all oncology RCTs published globally during January 1, 2014, to December 31, 2017, was conducted. The study cohort was restricted to RCTs led by HICs that enrolled participants from LMICs and UMICs. Study analyses were conducted in November 1, 2021, to May 31, 2022.Main outcomes and measuresA bibliometric approach (Web of Science 2007-2017) was used to explore whether RCT participation was proportional to other measures of cancer research activity. Participation in RCTs (ie, percentage of RCTs in the cohort in which each LMIC and UMIC participated) was compared with country-level cancer research bibliometric output (ie, percentage of total cancer research bibliometric output from the same group of countries that came from a specific LMIC and UMIC).ResultsAmong the 636 HIC-led RCTs, 186 trials (29%) enrolled patients in LMICs (n = 84 trials involving 11 LMICs) and/or UMICs (n = 181 trials involving 26 UMICs). The most common participating LMICs were India (42 [50%]), Ukraine (39 [46%]), Philippines (23 [27%]), and Egypt (12 [14%]). The most common participating UMICs were Russia (115 [64%]), Brazil (94 [52%]), Romania (62 [34%]), China (56 [31%]), Mexico (56 [31%]), and South Africa (54 [30%]). Several LMICs are overrepresented in the cohort of RCTs based on proportional cancer research bibliometric output: Ukraine (46% of RCTs but 2% of cancer research bibliometric output), Philippines (27% RCTs, 1% output), and Georgia (8% RCTs, 0.2% output). Overrepresented UMICs include Russia (64% RCTs, 2% output), Romania (34% RCTs, 2% output), Mexico (31% RCTs, 2% output), and South Africa (30% RCTs, 1% output).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional study, a substantial proportion of RCTs led by HICs enrolled patients in LMICs and UMICs. The LMICs and UMICs that participated in these trials did not match overall cancer bibliometric output as a surrogate for research ecosystem maturity. Reasons for this apparent discordance and how these data may inform future capacity-strengthening activities require further study.
| S-EPMC9389348 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Cervical cancer is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related death in women worldwide, with 90% of cases occurring in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). There has been a global effort to increase access to affordable screening in these settings; however, a corresponding increase in availability of effective and inexpensive treatment modalities for ablating or excising precancerous lesions is also needed to decrease mortality. This article reviews the current landscape of available and developing technologies for treatment of cervical precancer in LMICs. At present, the standard treatment of most precancerous lesions in LMICs is gas-based cryotherapy. This low-cost, effective technology is an expedient treatment in many areas; however, obtaining and transporting gas is often difficult, and unwieldy gas tanks are not conducive to mobile health campaigns. There are several promising ablative technologies in development that are gasless or require less gas than conventional cryotherapy. Although further evaluation of the efficacy and cost-effectiveness is needed, several of these technologies are safe and can now be implemented in LMICs. Nonsurgical therapies, such as therapeutic vaccines, antivirals, and topical applications, are also promising, but most remain in early-stage trials. The establishment of evidence-based standardized protocols for available treatments and the development and introduction of novel technologies are necessary steps in overcoming barriers to treatment in LMICs and decreasing the global burden of cervical cancer. Guidance from WHO on emerging treatment technologies is also needed.
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Project description:BackgroundEnterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) and shigella are two major pathogens that cause moderate-to-severe diarrhoea in children younger than 5 years. Diarrhoea is associated with an increased risk of stunting, which puts children at risk of death due to other infectious diseases.MethodsWe modelled ETEC-related and shigella-related mortality and the effect of moderate-to-severe diarrhoea episodes to determine the number of children with stunting due to these infections in 79 low-income and lower middle-income countries. We applied population attributable risk for increased number of deaths due to other infectious diseases in children who are stunted. We calculated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the point estimates.FindingsIn children younger than 5 years, we estimate 196 million (95% UI 135-269) episodes of ETEC and shigella diarrhoea occur annually, resulting in 3·5 million (0·8-5·4) cases of moderate-to-severe stunting and 44 400 (29 400-59 800) total ETEC deaths and 63 100 (44 000-81 900) total shigella deaths in 2015. Additional infectious disease mortality due to stunting resulted in increases of 24% (8-34; for ETEC) and 28% (10-39; for shigella) over direct deaths due to diarrhoeal episodes. The distribution of mortality and morbidity varied geographically, with African Region and Eastern Mediterranean Region countries bearing the greatest burden.InterpretationThe expanded effects of non-fatal ETEC and shigella-related diarrhoeal episodes can have lasting consequences. Prevention of these infections could reduce the risk of direct death and stunting and deaths due to other infectious diseases. Understanding the countries and populations with the highest disease risk helps to target interventions for the most vulnerable populations.FundingThe Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
| S-EPMC6379821 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC6422246 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-EPMC11659548 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The World Health Organization announced an ambitious call for cervical cancer elimination worldwide. With existing prevention and treatment modalities, cervical cancer elimination is now within reach for high-income countries. Despite limited financing and capacity constraints in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs), prevention and control efforts can be supported through integrated services and new technologies. We conducted this scoping review to outline a roadmap toward cervical cancer elimination in LMICs and highlight evidence-based interventions and research priorities to accelerate cervical cancer elimination. We reviewed and synthesized literature from 2010 to 2020 on primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention strategies. In addition, we conducted expert interviews with gynecologic and infectious disease providers, researchers, and LMIC health officials. Using these data, we developed a logic model to summarize the current state of science and identified evidence gaps and priority research questions for each prevention strategy. The logic model for cervical cancer elimination maps the needs for improved collaboration between policy makers, production and supply, healthcare systems, providers, health workers, and communities. The model articulates responsibilities for stakeholders and visualizes processes to increase access to and coverage of prevention methods. We discuss the challenges of contextual factors and highlight innovation needs. Effective prevention methods include HPV vaccination, screening using visual inspection and HPV testing, and thermocoagulation. However, vaccine coverage remains low in LMICs. New strategies, including single-dose vaccination could enhance impact. Loss to follow-up and treatment delays could be addressed by improved same-day screen-and-treat technologies. We provide a practical framework to guide cervical cancer elimination in LMICs. The scoping review highlights existing and innovative strategies, unmet needs, and collaborations required to achieve elimination across implementation contexts.
| S-EPMC8281011 | biostudies-literature