Dataset Information

Surveillance data confirm multiyear predictions of rotavirus dynamics in New York City.

ABSTRACT: Prediction skill is a key test of models for epidemic dynamics. However, future validation of models against out-of-sample data is rare, partly because of a lack of timely surveillance data. We address this gap by analyzing the response of rotavirus dynamics to infant vaccination. Syndromic surveillance of emergency department visits for diarrhea in New York City reveals a marked decline in diarrheal incidence among infants and young children, in line with data on rotavirus-coded hospitalizations and laboratory-confirmed cases, and a shift from annual to biennial epidemics increasingly affecting older children and adults. A published mechanistic model qualitatively predicted these patterns more than 2 years in advance. Future efforts to increase vaccination coverage may disrupt these patterns and lead to further declines in the incidence of rotavirus-attributable gastroenteritis.

SUBMITTER: Olson DR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7043922 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Surveillance data confirm multiyear predictions of rotavirus dynamics in New York City.

Olson Donald R DR Lopman Benjamin A BA Konty Kevin J KJ Mathes Robert W RW Papadouka Vikki V Ternier Alexandra A Zucker Jane R JR Simonsen Lone L Grenfell Bryan T BT Pitzer Virginia E VE

Science advances 20200226 9

Prediction skill is a key test of models for epidemic dynamics. However, future validation of models against out-of-sample data is rare, partly because of a lack of timely surveillance data. We address this gap by analyzing the response of rotavirus dynamics to infant vaccination. Syndromic surveillance of emergency department visits for diarrhea in New York City reveals a marked decline in diarrheal incidence among infants and young children, in line with data on rotavirus-coded hospitalization ...[more]

PMID: 32133392

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Project description:ContextCarbon monoxide (CO) exposure can be life-threatening. Suspected and confirmed cases of CO poisoning warranting health care in New York City (NYC) are reportable to the NYC Poison Control Center (PCC).ObjectivesWe evaluated 4 hospital-based sources of CO surveillance data to identify ways to improve data capture and reporting.DesignSuspected and confirmed CO poisoning records from October 2015 through December 2016 were collected from the NYC emergency department (ED) syndromic surveillance system, New York State Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS) ED billing data, NYC PCC calls made from hospitals, and the Electronic Clinical Laboratory Reporting System (ECLRS). Syndromic and SPARCS records were person- and visit-matched. SPARCS and ECLRS records were also matched to PCC records on combinations of name, demographic characteristics, and visit information.SettingHospitals in NYC.ParticipantsIndividuals who visited NYC hospitals for CO-related health effects.Main outcome measuresWe assessed the validity of syndromic data, with SPARCS records as the gold standard. We matched SPARCS and ECLRS records to PCC records to analyze reporting rates by case characteristics.ResultsThe sensitivity of syndromic surveillance was 60% (225 true-positives detected among 372 visit-matched SPARCS cases), and positive predictive value was 46%. Syndromic records often missed CO flags because of a nonspecific or absent International Classification of Diseases code in the diagnosis field. Only 15% of 428 SPARCS records (total includes 56 records not visit-matched to syndromic) and 16% of 199 ECLRS records were reported to PCC, with male sex and younger age associated with higher reporting.ConclusionsMandatory reporting makes PCC useful for tracking CO poisoning in NYC, but incomplete reporting and challenges in distinguishing between confirmed and suspected cases limit its utility. Simultaneous tracking of the systems we evaluated can best reveal surveillance patterns.

Project description:ImportanceMore evidence on associations between mandated paid sick leave and health service utilization among low-income adults is needed to guide health policy and legislation nationwide.ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between New York City's 2014 paid sick leave mandate and health care utilization among Medicaid-enrolled adults.Design setting and participantsThis retrospective cohort study used New York State Medicaid administrative data for adults 18 to 64 years old continuously enrolled in Medicaid from August 1, 2011, through July 31, 2017. A difference-in-differences approach with entropy balancing weights was used to compare New York City with the rest of New York State to assess the association of the paid sick leave mandate with health care utilization, and for those 40 to 64 years old, with preventive care utilization. The data analysis was performed from June through August 2020.ExposuresTemporal and spatial variation in exposure to the mandate.Main outcomes and measuresAnnual health care utilization (emergency care, specialist visits, and primary care clinician visits) per Medicaid-enrolled adult. Secondary outcomes include categories of emergency utilization and utilization of 5 preventive services.ResultsOf 552 857 individuals (mean [SD] age, 43 [12] years; 351 130 [64%] women) who met inclusion criteria, 99 181 (18%) were White, 162 492 (29%) Black, and 138 061 (25%) Hispanic. Paid sick leave was significantly associated with a reduction in the probability of emergency care (-0.6 percentage points [pp]; 95% CI, -0.7 to -0.5 pp; P < .001), including a 0.3 pp reduction (95% CI, -0.4 to -0.2; P < .001) in care for conditions treatable in a primary care setting and an increase in annual outpatient visits (0.124 pp; 95% CI, 0.040 to 0.208 pp; P < .001). Among those 40 to 64 years old, the mandate was significantly associated with increased probabilities of glycated hemoglobin A1c level testing (2.9 pp; 95% CI, 2.5-3.3 pp; P < .001), blood cholesterol testing (2.7 pp; 95% CI, 2.5-2.9 pp; P < .001), and colon cancer screening (0.4 pp; 95% CI, 0.2-0.6 pp; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceThis retrospective cohort study of nonelderly adults enrolled in Medicaid New York State showed that mandated paid sick leave in New York City was significantly associated with differences in several dimensions of health care services use.

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Surveillance data confirm multiyear predictions of rotavirus dynamics in New York City.

Publications

Surveillance data confirm multiyear predictions of rotavirus dynamics in New York City.

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