Early prediction of antigenic transitions for influenza A/H3N2.

ABSTRACT: Influenza A/H3N2 is a rapidly evolving virus which experiences major antigenic transitions every two to eight years. Anticipating the timing and outcome of transitions is critical to developing effective seasonal influenza vaccines. Using a published phylodynamic model of influenza transmission, we identified indicators of future evolutionary success for an emerging antigenic cluster and quantified fundamental trade-offs in our ability to make such predictions. The eventual fate of a new cluster depends on its initial epidemiological growth rate--which is a function of mutational load and population susceptibility to the cluster--along with the variance in growth rate across co-circulating viruses. Logistic regression can predict whether a cluster at 5% relative frequency will eventually s

SUBMITTER: Castro LA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7048310 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature