Incubation periods impact the spatial predictability of cholera and Ebola outbreaks in Sierra Leone.

ABSTRACT: Forecasting the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases during an outbreak is an important component of epidemic response. However, it remains challenging both methodologically and with respect to data requirements, as disease spread is influenced by numerous factors, including the pathogen's underlying transmission parameters and epidemiological dynamics, social networks and population connectivity, and environmental conditions. Here, using data from Sierra Leone, we analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of recent cholera and Ebola outbreaks and compare and contrast the spread of these two pathogens in the same population. We develop a simulation model of the spatial spread of an epidemic in order to examine the impact of a pathogen's incubation period on the dynamics of spread and the

SUBMITTER: Kahn R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7060667 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature