The effects of seasonal climate variability on dengue annual incidence in Hong Kong: A modelling study.

ABSTRACT: In recent years, dengue has been rapidly spreading and growing in the tropics and subtropics. Located in southern China, Hong Kong's subtropical monsoon climate may favour dengue vector populations and increase the chance of disease transmissions during the rainy summer season. An increase in local dengue incidence has been observed in Hong Kong ever since the first case in 2002, with an outbreak reaching historically high case numbers in 2018. However, the effects of seasonal climate variability on recent outbreaks are unknown. As the local cases were found to be spatially clustered, we developed a Poisson generalized linear mixed model using pre-summer monthly total rainfall and mean temperature to predict annual dengue incidence (the majority of local cases occur during or after the sum

SUBMITTER: Yuan HY 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7062697 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature