A risk prediction model for the development of subsequent primary melanoma in a population-based cohort.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Guidelines for follow-up of patients with melanoma are based on limited evidence.

Objectives

To guide skin surveillance, we developed a risk prediction model for subsequent primary melanomas, using demographic, phenotypical, histopathological, sun exposure and genomic risk factors.

Methods

Using Cox regression frailty models, we analysed data for 2613 primary melanomas from 1266 patients recruited to the population-based Genes, Environment and Melanoma study in New South Wales, Australia, with a median of 14 years' follow-up via the cancer registry. Discrimination and calibration were assessed.

Results

The median time to diagnosis of a subsequent primary melanoma decreased with each new primary melanoma. The final model included 12 risk factors. Harr

SUBMITTER: Cust AE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7069770 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature