Modeling the epidemic dynamics and control of COVID-19 outbreak in China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading in China and more than 30 countries over last two months. COVID-19 has multiple characteristics distinct from other infectious diseases, including high infectivity during incubation, time delay between real dynamics and daily observed number of confirmed cases, and the intervention effects of implemented quarantine and control measures.

Methods

We develop a Susceptible, Un-quanrantined infected, Quarantined infected, Confirmed infected (SUQC) model to characterize the dynamics of COVID-19 and explicitly parameterize the intervention effects of control measures, which is more suitable for analysis than other existing epidemic models.

Results

The SUQC model is applied to the daily released data of t

SUBMITTER: Zhao S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7095099 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature