Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Isolation of cases and contact tracing is used to control outbreaks of infectious diseases, and has been used for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whether this strategy will achieve control depends on characteristics of both the pathogen and the response. Here we use a mathematical model to assess if isolation and contact tracing are able to control onwards transmission from imported cases of COVID-19.

Methods

We developed a stochastic transmission model, parameterised to the COVID-19 outbreak. We used the model to quantify the potential effectiveness of contact tracing and isolation of cases at controlling a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-like pathogen. We considered scenarios that varied in the number of initial cases, the basic

SUBMITTER: Hellewell J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7097845 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature