Early warning signals of malaria resurgence in Kericho, Kenya.

ABSTRACT: Campaigns to eliminate infectious diseases could be greatly aided by methods for providing early warning signals of resurgence. Theory predicts that as a disease transmission system undergoes a transition from stability at the disease-free equilibrium to sustained transmission, it will exhibit characteristic behaviours known as critical slowing down, referring to the speed at which fluctuations in the number of cases are dampened, for instance the extinction of a local transmission chain after infection from an imported case. These phenomena include increases in several summary statistics, including lag-1 autocorrelation, variance and the first difference of variance. Here, we report the first empirical test of this prediction during the resurgence of malaria in Kericho, Kenya. For 10 summ

SUBMITTER: Harris MJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7115183 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature