Symbolic transfer entropy reveals the age structure of pandemic influenza transmission from high-volume influenza-like illness data.

ABSTRACT: Existing methods to infer the relative roles of age groups in epidemic transmission can normally only accommodate a few age classes, and/or require data that are highly specific for the disease being studied. Here, symbolic transfer entropy (STE), a measure developed to identify asymmetric transfer of information between stochastic processes, is presented as a way to reveal asymmetric transmission patterns between age groups in an epidemic. STE provides a ranking of which age groups may dominate transmission, rather than a reconstruction of the explicit between-age-group transmission matrix. Using simulations, we establish that STE can identify which age groups dominate transmission even when there are differences in reporting rates between age groups and even if the data are noisy. Then,

SUBMITTER: Kissler SM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7115222 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature