When will the battle against novel coronavirus end in Wuhan: A SEIR modeling analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Recent outbreak of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan raised serious public health concerns. By February 15, 2020 in Wuhan, the total number of confirmed infection cases has reached 37 914, and the number of deaths has reached 1123, accounting for 56.9% of the total confirmed cases and 73.7% of the total deaths in China. People are eager to know when the epidemic will be completely controlled and when people's work and life will be on the right track.

Method

In this study we analyzed the epidemic dynamics and trend of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan by using the data after the closure of Wuhan city till February 12, 2020 based on the SEIR modeling method.

Results

The optimal parameters were estimated as R₀ = 1.44 (interquartile range: 1.40-1.47), TI = 14 (interquartile range

SUBMITTER: Wan K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7125416 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature