Epidemiological Identification of A Novel Pathogen in Real Time: Analysis of the Atypical Pneumonia Outbreak in Wuhan, China, 2019-2020.

ABSTRACT: Virological tests have now shown conclusively that a novel coronavirus is causing the 2019-2020 atypical pneumonia outbreak in Wuhan, China. We demonstrate that non-virological descriptive characteristics could have determined that the outbreak is caused by a novel pathogen in advance of virological testing. Characteristics of the ongoing outbreak were collected in real time from two medical social media sites. These were compared against characteristics of eleven pathogens that have previously caused cases of atypical pneumonia. The probability that the current outbreak is due to "Disease X" (i.e., previously unknown etiology) as opposed to one of the known pathogens was inferred, and this estimate was updated as the outbreak continued. The probability (expressed as a percentage) that Dis

SUBMITTER: Jung SM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7141128 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature