Academic Community's Efforts to Guide the Fight Against Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Epidemic in Korea.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Cho SI
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7142007 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Academic Community's Efforts to Guide the Fight Against Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Epidemic in Korea.
Journal of preventive medicine and public health = Yebang Uihakhoe chi 20200331 2
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Project description:The temporal growth in the number of deaths in the COVID-19 epidemic is subexponential. Here we show that a piecewise quadratic law provides an excellent fit during the thirty days after the first three fatalities on January 20 and later since the end of March 2020. There is also a brief intermediate period of exponential growth. During the second quadratic growth phase, the characteristic time of the growth is about eight times shorter than in the beginning, which can be understood as the occurrence of separate hotspots. Quadratic behavior can be motivated by peripheral growth when further spreading occurs only on the outskirts of an infected region. We also study numerical solutions of a simple epidemic model, where the spatial extend of the system is taken into account. To model the delayed onset outside China together with the early one in China within a single model with minimal assumptions, we adopt an initial condition of several hotspots, of which one reaches saturation much earlier than the others. At each site, quadratic growth commences when the local number of infections has reached a certain saturation level. The total number of deaths does then indeed follow a piecewise quadratic behavior.
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Project description:The large outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that started in Wuhan, China has now spread to many countries worldwide. Current epidemiologic knowledge suggests that relatively few cases are seen among children, which limits opportunities to address pediatric specific issues on infection control and the children's contribution to viral spread in the community. Here, we report the first pediatric case of COVID-19 in Korea. The 10-year-old girl was a close contact of her uncle and her mother who were confirmed to have COVID-19. In this report, we present mild clinical course of her pneumonia that did not require antiviral treatment and serial viral test results from multiple specimens. Lastly, we raise concerns on the optimal strategy of self-quarantine and patient care in a negative isolation room for children.
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