A socio-ecological model for predicting impacts of land-use and climate change on regional plant diversity in the Austrian Alps.

ABSTRACT: Climate and land-use change jointly affect the future of biodiversity. Yet, biodiversity scenarios have so far concentrated on climatic effects because forecasts of land use are rarely available at appropriate spatial and thematic scales. Agent-based models (ABMs) represent a potentially powerful but little explored tool for establishing thematically and spatially fine-grained land-use scenarios. Here, we use an ABM parameterized for 1,329 agents, mostly farmers, in a Central European model region, and simulate the changes to land-use patterns resulting from their response to three scenarios of changing socio-economic conditions and three scenarios of climate change until the mid of the century. Subsequently, we use species distribution models to, first, analyse relationships between the r

SUBMITTER: Dullinger I 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7155135 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature