How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Anderson RM
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7158572 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
How will country-based mitigation measures influence the course of the COVID-19 epidemic?
Anderson Roy M RM Heesterbeek Hans H Klinkenberg Don D Hollingsworth T Déirdre TD
Lancet (London, England) 20200309 10228
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Project description:BackgroundEuropean countries are still searching to eliminate or contain the Covid-19 pandemic. A variety of approaches have achieved different levels of success in limiting the spread of the disease early and preventing avoidable deaths. Governmental policy responses may explain these differences and this study aims to describe evidence about the effectiveness of containment measures throughout the course of the pandemic in five European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK).MethodsThe research approach adopted consisted of three steps: 1) Build a Containment Index (C.I.) that considers nine parameters to make an assessment on the strength of measures; 2) Develop dynamic epidemiological models for forecasting purposes; 3) Predict case numbers by assuming containment measures remain constant for a period of 30 days.ResultsOur analysis revealed that in the five European countries we compared, the use of different approaches definitively affected the effectiveness of containment measures for the Covid-19 pandemic.ConclusionThe evidence found in our research can be useful to inform policy makers' decisions when deciding to introduce or relax containment measures and their timing, both during the current pandemic or in addressing possible future health crises.
| S-EPMC9482299 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn Ireland and across the European Union the COVID-19 epidemic waves, driven mainly by the emergence of new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 have continued their course, despite various interventions from governments. Public health interventions continue in their attempts to control the spread as they wait for the planned significant effect of vaccination.MethodsTo tackle this challenge and the observed non-stationary aspect of the epidemic we used a modified SEIR stochastic model with time-varying parameters, following Brownian process. This enabled us to reconstruct the temporal evolution of the transmission rate of COVID-19 with the non-specific hypothesis that it follows a basic stochastic process constrained by the available data. This model is coupled with Bayesian inference (particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo method) for parameter estimation and utilized mainly well-documented Irish hospital data.ResultsIn Ireland, mitigation measures provided a 78-86% reduction in transmission during the first wave between March and May 2020. For the second wave in October 2020, our reduction estimation was around 20% while it was 70% for the third wave in January 2021. This third wave was partly due to the UK variant appearing in Ireland. In June 2020 we estimated that sero-prevalence was 2.0% (95% CI: 1.2-3.5%) in complete accordance with a sero-prevalence survey. By the end of April 2021, the sero-prevalence was greater than 17% due in part to the vaccination campaign. Finally we demonstrate that the available observed confirmed cases are not reliable for analysis owing to the fact that their reporting rate has as expected greatly evolved.ConclusionWe provide the first estimations of the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ireland and its key parameters. We also quantify the effects of mitigation measures on the virus transmission during and after mitigation for the three waves. Our results demonstrate that Ireland has significantly reduced transmission by employing mitigation measures, physical distancing and lockdown. This has to date avoided the saturation of healthcare infrastructures, flattened the epidemic curve and likely reduced mortality. However, as we await for a full roll out of a vaccination programme and as new variants potentially more transmissible and/or more infectious could continue to emerge and mitigation measures change silent transmission, challenges remain.
| S-EPMC8329614 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Governments around the world have adopted many mitigation strategies to stop the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Public support for these strategies varies widely. In this visualization the authors examine whether college education might play a role in support for various COVID-19 mitigation strategies. To do so, they leverage original data from surveys conducted across six countries. The authors find that the association between education and support for COVID-19 restrictions varies considerably in direction, both by restriction type and by country. Given this finding, in many contexts, the educational status of the intended audience should be considered in how public health messaging campaigns are developed and targeted.
| S-EPMC10061224 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the absence of vaccines or causal therapies, behavioral measures such as wearing face masks and maintaining social distance are central to fighting Covid-19. Yet, their benefits are often questioned by the population and the level of adherence to the measures is variable. We examined in representative samples across eight countries (N = 7,568) whether adherence reported around June 1, 2020 predicted the increase in Covid-19 mortality by August 31, 2020. Mortality increased 81.3% in low adherence countries (United States, Sweden, Poland, Russia), 8.4% in high adherence countries (Germany, France, Spain, United Kingdom). Across countries adherence and subsequent mortality increases correlated with r = -0.91. No African or South American countries were included in the present study, which limits the generalizability of the findings. While reported Covid-19 mortality is likely to be influenced by other factors, the almost tenfold difference in additional mortality is significant, and may inform decisions when choosing whether to prioritize individual liberty rights or health-protective measures.
| S-EPMC8009358 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Understanding the influence of COVID-19 on China's agricultural economy and the Chinese government's emergency measures to ease the economic impacts of viral spread can offer urgently-needed lessons while this virus continues to spread across the globe. Thus, this study collected over 750,000 words upon the topic of COVID-19 and agriculture from the largest two media channels in China: WeChat and Sina Weibo, and employed web crawler technology and text mining method to explore the influence of COVID-19 on agricultural economy and mitigation measures in China. The results show that: (1) the impact of COVID-19 on China's agricultural economy at the very first phase is mainly reflected in eight aspects as crop production, agricultural products supply, livestock production, farmers' income and employment, economic crop development, agricultural products sales model, leisure agriculture development, and agricultural products trade. (2) The government's immediate countermeasures include resuming agricultural production and farmers' work, providing financial support, stabilizing agricultural production and products supply, promoting agricultural products sale, providing subsidies, providing agricultural technology guidance and field management, and providing assistance to poor farmers to reduce poverty. (3) The order of government's immediate countermeasures is not all in line with the order of impact aspects, which indicates that more-tailored policies should be implemented to mitigate the strikes of COVID-19 on China's agricultural economy in the future.
| S-EPMC7584181 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundLockdown measures are the backbone of containment measures for the COVID-19 pandemic both in high-income countries (HICs) and low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, in view of the inevitably-occurring second and third global covid-19 wave, assessing the success and impact of containment measures on the epidemic curve of COVID-19 and people's compliance with such measures is crucial for more effective policies. To determine the containment measures influencing the COVID-19 epidemic curve in nine targeted countries across high-, middle-, and low-income nations.MethodsFour HICs (Germany, Sweden, Italy, and South Korea) and five LMICs (Mexico, Colombia, India, Nigeria, and Nepal) were selected to assess the association using interrupted time series analysis of daily case numbers and deaths of COVID-19 considering the following factors: The "stringency index (SI)" indicating how tight the containment measures were implemented in each country; and the level of compliance with the prescribed measures using human mobility data. Additionally, a scoping review was conducted to contextualize the findings.ResultsMost countries implemented quite rigorous lockdown measures, particularly the LMICs (India, Nepal, and Colombia) following the model of HICs (Germany and Italy). Exceptions were Sweden and South Korea, which opted for different strategies. The compliance with the restrictions-measured as mobility related to home office, restraining from leisure activities, non-use of local transport and others-was generally good, except in Sweden and South Korea where the restrictions were limited. The endemic curves and time-series analysis showed that the containment measures were successful in HICs but not in LMICs.ConclusionThe imposed lockdown measures are alarming, particularly in resource-constrained settings where such measures are independent of the population segment, which drives the virus transmission. Methods for examining people's movements or hardships that are caused by covid- no work, no food situation are inequitable. Novel and context-adapted approach of dealing with the COVID-19 crisis are therefore crucial.
| S-EPMC8487341 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Covid-19 pandemic has prompted governments across the world to enforce a range of public health interventions. We introduce the Covid-19 Policy Response Canadian tracker (CPRCT) database that tracks and records implemented public health measures in every province and territory in Canada. The implementations are recorded on a four-level ordinal scale (0-3) for three domains, (Schools, Work, and Other), capturing differences in degree of response. The data-set allows the exploration of the effects of public health mitigation on the spread of Covid-19, as well as provides a near-real-time record in an accessible format that is useful for a diverse range of modeling and research questions.
| S-EPMC10709578 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Reopening schools is an urgent priority as the COVID-19 pandemic drags on. To explore the risks associated with returning to in-person learning and the value of mitigation measures, we developed stochastic, network-based models of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in primary and secondary schools. We find that a number of mitigation measures, alone or in concert, may reduce risk to acceptable levels. Student cohorting, in which students are divided into two separate populations that attend in-person classes on alternating schedules, can reduce both the likelihood and the size of outbreaks. Proactive testing of teachers and staff can help catch introductions early, before they spread widely through the school. In secondary schools, where the students are more susceptible to infection and have different patterns of social interaction, control is more difficult. Especially in these settings, planners should also consider testing students once or twice weekly. Vaccinating teachers and staff protects these individuals and may have a protective effect on students as well. Other mitigations, including mask wearing, social distancing, and increased ventilation, remain a crucial component of any reopening plan.
| S-EPMC8488607 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe real-world impact of breathing zone air purification and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mitigation measures on healthcare-associated infections is not well documented. Engineering solutions to treat airborne transmission of disease may yield results in controlled test chambers or single rooms, but have not been reported on hospital-wide applications, and the impact of COVID-19 mitigation measures on healthcare-associated infection rates is unknown.AimTo determine the impact of hospital-wide bioaerosol treatment and COVID-19 mitigation measures on clinical outcomes.MethodsThe impact of the step-wise addition of air disinfection technology and COVID-19 mitigation measures to standard multi-modal infection control on particle counts, viral and bacterial bioburden, and healthcare-associated infection rates was investigated in a 124-bed hospital (>100,000 patient-days over 30 months).Findings and conclusionThe addition of air disinfection technology and COVID-19 mitigation measures reduced airborne ultrafine particles, altered hospital bioburden, and reduced healthcare-associated infections from 11.9 to 6.6 (per 1000 patient-days) and from 6.6 to 1.0 (per 1000 patient-days), respectively (P<0.0001, R2=0.86). No single technology, tool or procedure will eliminate healthcare-associated infections, but the addition of a ubiquitous facility-wide engineering solution at limited expense and with no alteration to patient, visitor or staff traffic or workflow patterns reduced infections by 45%. A similar impact was documented with the addition of comprehensive, restrictive, and labour- and material-intensive COVID-19 mitigation measures. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first direct comparison between traditional infection control, an engineering solution and COVID-19 mitigation measures.
| S-EPMC8295046 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated energy insecurity and economic hardship among vulnerable populations. This paper provides robust empirical evidence of the degree to which COVID-19 mitigation measures, especially the mandates of school closure and limiting business operations, have impacted electricity consumption behavior in low-income and ethnic minority groups in the United States. We use a regression discontinuity design applied to individual-consumer-level high-frequency smart meter data in Arizona and Illinois to highlight the disparities in mitigation measure impacts. We find that the mandates of school closures and limiting business operations increase residential electricity consumption by 4-5%, but reduce commercial electricity consumption by 5-8%. Considerable heterogeneity is observed across income and race: low-income and ethnic-minority populations experience a larger electricity consumption increase, reflecting the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on electricity insecurity in the residential sector. Policies that address energy insecurity, especially during the pandemic, become essentially important.
| S-EPMC8494498 | biostudies-literature