Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Salganik MJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7165437 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Measuring the predictability of life outcomes with a scientific mass collaboration.
Salganik Matthew J MJ Lundberg Ian I Kindel Alexander T AT Ahearn Caitlin E CE Al-Ghoneim Khaled K Almaatouq Abdullah A Altschul Drew M DM Brand Jennie E JE Carnegie Nicole Bohme NB Compton Ryan James RJ Datta Debanjan D Davidson Thomas T Filippova Anna A Gilroy Connor C Goode Brian J BJ Jahani Eaman E Kashyap Ridhi R Kirchner Antje A McKay Stephen S Morgan Allison C AC Pentland Alex A Polimis Kivan K Raes Louis L Rigobon Daniel E DE Roberts Claudia V CV Stanescu Diana M DM Suhara Yoshihiko Y Usmani Adaner A Wang Erik H EH Adem Muna M Alhajri Abdulla A AlShebli Bedoor B Amin Redwane R Amos Ryan B RB Argyle Lisa P LP Baer-Bositis Livia L Büchi Moritz M Chung Bo-Ryehn BR Eggert William W Faletto Gregory G Fan Zhilin Z Freese Jeremy J Gadgil Tejomay T Gagné Josh J Gao Yue Y Halpern-Manners Andrew A Hashim Sonia P SP Hausen Sonia S He Guanhua G Higuera Kimberly K Hogan Bernie B Horwitz Ilana M IM Hummel Lisa M LM Jain Naman N Jin Kun K Jurgens David D Kaminski Patrick P Karapetyan Areg A Kim E H EH Leizman Ben B Liu Naijia N Möser Malte M Mack Andrew E AE Mahajan Mayank M Mandell Noah N Marahrens Helge H Mercado-Garcia Diana D Mocz Viola V Mueller-Gastell Katariina K Musse Ahmed A Niu Qiankun Q Nowak William W Omidvar Hamidreza H Or Andrew A Ouyang Karen K Pinto Katy M KM Porter Ethan E Porter Kristin E KE Qian Crystal C Rauf Tamkinat T Sargsyan Anahit A Schaffner Thomas T Schnabel Landon L Schonfeld Bryan B Sender Ben B Tang Jonathan D JD Tsurkov Emma E van Loon Austin A Varol Onur O Wang Xiafei X Wang Zhi Z Wang Julia J Wang Flora F Weissman Samantha S Whitaker Kirstie K Wolters Maria K MK Woon Wei Lee WL Wu James J Wu Catherine C Yang Kengran K Yin Jingwen J Zhao Bingyu B Zhu Chenyun C Brooks-Gunn Jeanne J Engelhardt Barbara E BE Hardt Moritz M Knox Dean D Levy Karen K Narayanan Arvind A Stewart Brandon M BM Watts Duncan J DJ McLanahan Sara S
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20200330 15
How predictable are life trajectories? We investigated this question with a scientific mass collaboration using the common task method; 160 teams built predictive models for six life outcomes using data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study, a high-quality birth cohort study. Despite using a rich dataset and applying machine-learning methods optimized for prediction, the best predictions were not very accurate and were only slightly better than those from a simple benchmark model. ...[more]