Novel Risk Modeling Approach of Atrial Fibrillation With Restricted Mean Survival Times: Application in the Framingham Heart Study Community-Based Cohort.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Risk prediction models for atrial fibrillation (AF) do not give information about when AF might develop. Restricted mean survival time (RMST) quantifies risk into the time domain. Our objective was to use RMST to re-express individualized AF risk predictions.

Methods and results

We included AF-free participants from the Framingham Heart Study community-based cohorts. We predicted new-onset AF over 10-year follow-up according to baseline covariates: age, height, weight, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, antihypertensive treatment, diabetes mellitus, prevalent heart failure, and prevalent myocardial infarction. First, we fitted a Cox regression model and estimated the 10-year predicted risk of AF. Second, we fitted an RMST model and

SUBMITTER: Staerk L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7176529 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature