Statistical methods for predicting tuberculosis incidence based on data from Guangxi, China.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a serious public health problem with substantial financial burden in China. The incidence of TB in Guangxi province is much higher than that in the national level, however, there is no predictive study of TB in recent years in Guangxi, therefore, it is urgent to construct a model to predict the incidence of TB, which could provide help for the prevention and control of TB.

Methods

Box-Jenkins model methods have been successfully applied to predict the incidence of infectious disease. In this study, based on the analysis of TB incidence in Guangxi from January 2012 to June 2019, we constructed TB prediction model by Box-Jenkins methods, and used root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MA

SUBMITTER: Zheng Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7178605 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature