Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Du Z
PROVIDER: S-EPMC7181905 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Risk for Transportation of Coronavirus Disease from Wuhan to Other Cities in China.
Du Zhanwei Z Wang Lin L Cauchemez Simon S Xu Xiaoke X Wang Xianwen X Cowling Benjamin J BJ Meyers Lauren Ancel LA
Emerging infectious diseases 20200517 5
On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain coronavirus disease (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 other cities in China before the quarantine. Expected COVID-19 risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89-190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas. ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:On January 23, 2020, China quarantined Wuhan to contain an emerging coronavirus (COVID-19). We estimated the probability of transportation of COVID-19 from Wuhan to 369 cities in China before the quarantine. The expected risk is >50% in 130 (95% CI 89-190) cities and >99% in the 4 largest metropolitan areas of China.
| S-EPMC7239085 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients were classified into four clinical stages (uncomplicated illness, mild, severe and critical pneumonia) depending on disease severity. We aim to investigate the corresponding clinical, radiological and laboratory characteristics between different clinical stages. A retrospective, single-centre study of 101 confirmed patients with COVID-19 at Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from 2 January to 28 January 2020 was enrolled; follow-up endpoint was on 8 February 2020. Clinical data were collected and compared during the course of illness. The median age of the 101 patients was 51.0 years and 33.6% were medical staff. Fever (68%), cough (50%) and fatigue (23%) are the most common symptoms. About 26% patients underwent the mechanical ventilation and 98% patients were treated with antibiotics. Thirty-seven per cent patients were cured and 11 died. On admission, the number of patients with uncomplicated illness, mild, severe and critical pneumonia were 2 [2%], 86 [85%], 11 [11%] and 2 [2%]. Forty-four of the 86 mild pneumonia progressed to severe illness within 4 days, with nine patients worsened due to critical pneumonia within 4 days. Two of the 11 severe patients improved to mild condition while three others deteriorated. Significant differences were observed among groups of different clinical stages in numbers of influenced pulmonary segments (6 vs. 12 vs. 17, P < 0.001). A significantly upward trend was witnessed in ground-glass opacities overlapped with striped shadows (33% vs. 42% vs. 55% vs. 80%, P < 0.001), while pure ground-glass opacities gradually decreased as disease progressed (45% vs. 35% vs. 24% vs. 13%, P < 0.001) within 12 days. Lymphocytes, prealbumin and albumin showed a downtrend as disease progressed from mild to severe or critical condition, an uptrend was found in white blood cells, C-reactive protein, neutrophils and lactate dehydrogenase. The proportions of serum amyloid A > 300 mg/l in mild, severe and critical conditions were 18%, 46% and 71%, respectively.
| S-EPMC7225215 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThe outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, is serious and has the potential to become an epidemic worldwide. Several studies have described typical clinical manifestations including fever, cough, diarrhea, and fatigue. However, to our knowledge, it has not been reported that patients with COVID-19 had any neurologic manifestations.ObjectiveTo study the neurologic manifestations of patients with COVID-19.Design, setting, and participantsThis is a retrospective, observational case series. Data were collected from January 16, 2020, to February 19, 2020, at 3 designated special care centers for COVID-19 (Main District, West Branch, and Tumor Center) of the Union Hospital of Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, China. The study included 214 consecutive hospitalized patients with laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection.Main outcomes and measuresClinical data were extracted from electronic medical records, and data of all neurologic symptoms were checked by 2 trained neurologists. Neurologic manifestations fell into 3 categories: central nervous system manifestations (dizziness, headache, impaired consciousness, acute cerebrovascular disease, ataxia, and seizure), peripheral nervous system manifestations (taste impairment, smell impairment, vision impairment, and nerve pain), and skeletal muscular injury manifestations.ResultsOf 214 patients (mean [SD] age, 52.7 [15.5] years; 87 men [40.7%]) with COVID-19, 126 patients (58.9%) had nonsevere infection and 88 patients (41.1%) had severe infection according to their respiratory status. Overall, 78 patients (36.4%) had neurologic manifestations. Compared with patients with nonsevere infection, patients with severe infection were older, had more underlying disorders, especially hypertension, and showed fewer typical symptoms of COVID-19, such as fever and cough. Patients with more severe infection had neurologic manifestations, such as acute cerebrovascular diseases (5 [5.7%] vs 1 [0.8%]), impaired consciousness (13 [14.8%] vs 3 [2.4%]), and skeletal muscle injury (17 [19.3%] vs 6 [4.8%]).Conclusions and relevancePatients with COVID-19 commonly have neurologic manifestations. During the epidemic period of COVID-19, when seeing patients with neurologic manifestations, clinicians should suspect severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection as a differential diagnosis to avoid delayed diagnosis or misdiagnosis and lose the chance to treat and prevent further transmission.
| S-EPMC7149362 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread rapidly around the world. We aimed to describe the epidemiological characteristics and the entire evolution of COVID-19 in Wuhan, and to evaluate the effect of non-pharmaceutical intervention by the government.MethodsThe information of COVID-19 cases until Mar 18, 2020 in Wuhan were collected from the national infectious disease surveillance system in Hubei province.ResultsA total of 49,973 confirmed cases were reported until Mar 18, 2020 in Wuhan. Among whom, 2496 cases died and the overall mortality was 5.0%. Most confirmed cases (25,619, 51.3%) occurred during Jan 23 to Feb 4, with a spike on Feb 1 (new cases, 3374). The number of daily new cases started to decrease steadily on Feb 19 (new cases, 301) and decreased greatly on Mar 1 (new cases, 57). However, the mortality and the proportion of severe and critical cases has been decreasing over time, with the lowest of 2.0 and 10.1% during Feb 16 to Mar 18, 2020, respectively. The percentage of severe and critical cases among all cases was 19.6%, and the percentage of critical and dead cases aged over 60 was 70.1 and 82.0%, respectively.ConclusionThe number of new cases has dropped significantly after the government taking the isolation of four types of personnel and the community containment for 14 days. Our results indicate that the mortality and proportion of severe and critical cases gradually decreased over time, and critical and dead cases are more incline to be older individuals.
| S-EPMC7542568 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background and purposeNo studies have reported the effect of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic on patients with preexisting stroke. We aim to study the clinical course of COVID-19 patients with preexisting stroke and to investigate death-related risk factors.MethodsWe consecutively included 651 adult inpatients with COVID-19 from the Central Hospital of Wuhan between January 2 and February 15, 2020. Data on the demography, comorbidities, clinical manifestations, laboratory findings, treatments, complications, and outcomes (ie, discharged or death) of the participants were extracted from electronic medical records and compared between patients with and without preexisting stroke. The association between risk factors and mortality was estimated using a Cox proportional hazards regression model for stroke patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.ResultsOf the 651 patients with COVID-19, 49 with preexisting stroke tended to be elderly, male, had more underlying comorbidities and greater severity of illness, prolonged length of hospital stay, and greater hospitalization expenses than those without preexisting stroke. Cox regression analysis indicated that the patients with stroke had a higher risk of developing critical pneumonia (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.01 [95% CI, 1.27-3.16]) and subsequent mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.73 [95% CI, 1.00-2.98]) than the patients without stroke. Among the 49 stroke patients, older age and higher score of Glasgow Coma Scale or Sequential Organ Failure Assessment were independent risk factors associated with in-hospital mortality.ConclusionsPreexisting stroke patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 were readily predisposed to death, providing an important message to individuals and health care workers that preventive measures must be implemented to protect and reduce transmission in stroke patients in this COVID-19 crisis.
| S-EPMC7434009 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an emerging infectious disease that was first reported in Wuhan, China, and has subsequently spread worldwide. Risk factors for the clinical outcomes of COVID-19 pneumonia have not yet been well delineated.ObjectiveTo describe the clinical characteristics and outcomes in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia who developed acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) or died.Design, setting, and participantsRetrospective cohort study of 201 patients with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia admitted to Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital in China between December 25, 2019, and January 26, 2020. The final date of follow-up was February 13, 2020.ExposuresConfirmed COVID-19 pneumonia.Main outcomes and measuresThe development of ARDS and death. Epidemiological, demographic, clinical, laboratory, management, treatment, and outcome data were also collected and analyzed.ResultsOf 201 patients, the median age was 51 years (interquartile range, 43-60 years), and 128 (63.7%) patients were men. Eighty-four patients (41.8%) developed ARDS, and of those 84 patients, 44 (52.4%) died. In those who developed ARDS, compared with those who did not, more patients presented with dyspnea (50 of 84 [59.5%] patients and 30 of 117 [25.6%] patients, respectively [difference, 33.9%; 95% CI, 19.7%-48.1%]) and had comorbidities such as hypertension (23 of 84 [27.4%] patients and 16 of 117 [13.7%] patients, respectively [difference, 13.7%; 95% CI, 1.3%-26.1%]) and diabetes (16 of 84 [19.0%] patients and 6 of 117 [5.1%] patients, respectively [difference, 13.9%; 95% CI, 3.6%-24.2%]). In bivariate Cox regression analysis, risk factors associated with the development of ARDS and progression from ARDS to death included older age (hazard ratio [HR], 3.26; 95% CI 2.08-5.11; and HR, 6.17; 95% CI, 3.26-11.67, respectively), neutrophilia (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.09-1.19; and HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.17, respectively), and organ and coagulation dysfunction (eg, higher lactate dehydrogenase [HR, 1.61; 95% CI, 1.44-1.79; and HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.11-1.52, respectively] and D-dimer [HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04; and HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 1.01-1.04, respectively]). High fever (≥39 °C) was associated with higher likelihood of ARDS development (HR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.11-2.84) and lower likelihood of death (HR, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.21-0.82). Among patients with ARDS, treatment with methylprednisolone decreased the risk of death (HR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.20-0.72).Conclusions and relevanceOlder age was associated with greater risk of development of ARDS and death likely owing to less rigorous immune response. Although high fever was associated with the development of ARDS, it was also associated with better outcomes among patients with ARDS. Moreover, treatment with methylprednisolone may be beneficial for patients who develop ARDS.
| S-EPMC7070509 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe mortality rate from acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is high among hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Hence, risk evaluation tools are required to immediately identify high-risk patients upon admission for early intervention.MethodsA cohort of 220 consecutive patients with COVID-19 were included in this study. To analyze the risk factors of ARDS, data obtained from approximately 70% of the participants were randomly selected and used as training dataset to establish a logistic regression model. Meanwhile, data obtained from the remaining 30% of the participants were used as test dataset to validate the effect of the model.ResultsLactate dehydrogenase, blood urea nitrogen, D-dimer, procalcitonin, and ferritin levels were included in the risk score system and were assigned a score of 25, 15, 34, 20, and 24, respectively. The cutoff value for the total score was > 35, with a sensitivity of 100.00% and specificity of 81.20%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were 0.967 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.925-0.989) and 0.437(P Value = 0.437). The model had excellent discrimination and calibration during internal validation.ConclusionsThe novel risk score may be a valuable risk evaluation tool for screening patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk of ARDS.
| S-EPMC7744733 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo evaluate and compare the efficacy of National Early Warning Score, National Early Warning Score 2, Rapid Emergency Medicine Score, Confusion, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, Age 65 score, and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment on predicting in-hospital death in patients with coronavirus disease 2019.DesignA retrospective, observational study.SettingSingle center, West Campus of Wuhan Union hospital-a temporary center to manage critically ill patients with coronavirus disease 2019.PatientsA total of 673 consecutive adult patients with coronavirus disease 2019 between January 30, 2020, and March 14, 2020.InterventionsNone.Measurements and main resultsData on demography, comorbidities, vital signs, mental status, oxygen saturation, and use of supplemental oxygen at admission to the ward were collected from medical records and used to score National Early Warning Score, National Early Warning Score 2, Rapid Emergency Medicine Score, Confusion, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, Age 65 score, and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment. Total number of patients was 673 (51% male) and median (interquartile range) age was 61 years (50-69 yr). One-hundred twenty-one patients died (18%). For predicting in-hospital death, the area under the receiver operating characteristics (95% CI) for National Early Warning Score, National Early Warning Score 2, Rapid Emergency Medicine Score, Confusion, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, Age 65 score, and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment were 0.882 (0.847-0.916), 0.880 (0.845-0.914), 0.839 (0.800-0.879), 0.766 (0.718-0.814), and 0.694 (0.641-0.746), respectively. Among the parameters of National Early Warning Score, the oxygen saturation score was found to be the most significant predictor of in-hospital death. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (95% CI) for oxygen saturation score was 0.875 (0.834-0.916).ConclusionsIn this single-center study, the discrimination of National Early Warning Score/National Early Warning Score 2 for predicting mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 admitted to the ward was found to be superior to Rapid Emergency Medicine Score, Confusion, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, Age 65 score, and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment. Peripheral oxygen saturation could independently predict in-hospital death in these patients. Further validation of our finding in multiple settings is needed to determine its applicability for coronavirus disease 2019.
| S-EPMC7448719 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)-like coronavirus sequences were identified in two separate complementary DNA (cDNA) pools. The first pool was from a Carassius auratus (crusian carp) cell line and the second was from Ctenopharyngodon idella (grass carp) head kidney tissue. BLAST analysis suggests that these sequences belong to SARS-like coronaviruses, and that they are not evolutionarily conserved in other species. Investigation of the submitting laboratories revealed that two laboratories from the Institute of Hydrobiology at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Wuhan, China performed the research and submitted the cDNA libraries to GenBank. This institution is very close in proximity to the Wuhan South China Seafood Wholesale Market where SARS-CoV-2 first amplified in the human population. It is possible that these sequences are an artifact of the bioinformatics pipeline that was used. It is also possible that SARS-like coronaviruses are a common environmental pathogen in the region that may be in aquatic habitats.
| S-EPMC7228230 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread outside the initial epicenter of Wuhan. We compared cases in Guangzhou and Wuhan to illustrate potential changes in pathogenicity and epidemiological characteristics as the epidemic has progressed. METHODS:We studied 20 patients admitted to the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-Sen University in Guangzhou, China from January 22 to February 12, 2020. Data were extracted from medical records. These cases were compared with the 99 cases, previously published in Lancet, from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital from January 1 to January 20, 2020. RESULTS:Guangzhou patients were younger and had better prognosis than Wuhan patients. The Wuhan patients were more likely to be admitted to the ICU (23% vs 5%) and had a higher mortality rate (11% vs 0%). Cases in Guangzhou tended to be more community clustered. Diarrhea and vomiting were more common among Guangzhou patients and SARS-CoV-2 RNA was found in feces. Fecal SARA-CoV-2 RNA remained positive when nasopharyngeal swabs turned negative in some patients. CONCLUSIONS:This study indicates possible diminishing virulence of the virus in the process of transmission. Yet persistent positive RNA in feces after negative nasopharyngeal swabs suggests a possible prolonged transmission period that challenges current quarantine practices.
| S-EPMC7194579 | biostudies-literature