Understanding the Importance of Contact Heterogeneity and Variable Infectiousness in the Dynamics of a Large Norovirus Outbreak.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Large norovirus (NoV) outbreaks are explosive in nature and vary widely in final size and duration, suggesting that superspreading combined with heterogeneous contact may explain these dynamics. Modeling tools that can capture heterogeneity in infectiousness and contact are important for NoV outbreak prevention and control, yet they remain limited.

Methods

Data from a large NoV outbreak at a Dutch scout jamboree, which resulted in illness among 326 (of 4500 total) individuals from 7 separate camps, were used to examine the contributions of individual variation in infectiousness and clustered contact patterns to the transmission dynamics. A Bayesian hierarchical model of heterogeneous, clustered outbreak transmission was applied to represent (1) between-individual

SUBMITTER: Zelner J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7188223 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature