Spatiotemporal variability in case fatality ratios for the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa.

ABSTRACT:

Background

For the 2013-2016 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, the largest Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic to date, we aim to analyse the patient mix in detail to characterise key sources of spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the case fatality ratios (CFR).

Methods

We applied a non-parametric Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) imputation approach for patients with missing survival outcomes and adjusted for model imperfection. Semivariogram analysis and kriging were used to investigate spatiotemporal heterogeneities.

Results

CFR estimates varied significantly between districts and over time over the course of the epidemic. BRT modelling accounted for most of the spatiotemporal variation and interactions in CFR, but moderate spatial autocorrelation remained for distances up to

SUBMITTER: Forna A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7191269 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature