Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the "Diamond Princess".

ABSTRACT: Traditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous. Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessary. Here, we use a contact network to reconstruct unprotected, protected contact, and airborne spread to simulate the two-stages outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) on the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship. We employ Bayesian inference and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the model parameters and quantify the uncertainties by the ensemble simulation technique. During the early epidemic with intensive social contacts, the results reveal that the average transmissibility t was 0.02

SUBMITTER: Liu F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7198438 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature