Spatial early warning signals of social and epidemiological tipping points in a coupled behaviour-disease network.

ABSTRACT: The resurgence of infectious diseases due to vaccine refusal has highlighted the role of interactions between disease dynamics and the spread of vaccine opinion on social networks. Shifts between disease elimination and outbreak regimes often occur through tipping points. It is known that tipping points can be predicted by early warning signals (EWS) based on characteristic dynamics near the critical transition, but the study of EWS in coupled behaviour-disease networks has received little attention. Here, we test several EWS indicators measuring spatial coherence and autocorrelation for their ability to predict a critical transition corresponding to disease outbreaks and vaccine refusal in a multiplex network model. The model couples paediatric infectious disease spread through a contact

SUBMITTER: Phillips B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7203335 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature