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Integrated Arbovirus Surveillance Improves the Detection Onset of Zika Virus in Panama.

ABSTRACT: We tested 700 serum samples collected throughout Panama from 2015 to 2016 for detecting antibodies and RNA of arboviruses. In convalescent specimens, microsphere immunoassay detected an antibody prevalence of 59.3% for dengue virus (DENV) and 30.3% for Zika virus (ZIKV), which included samples that were collected before the Panamanian surveillance system reported the first case of Zika in the country. For acute sera, the most common arbovirus was DENV with 18 positive samples (6%), followed by four (1.3%) of ZIKV and one (0.6%) of chikungunya virus (CHIKV). Our results indicate a change in the chronology of when ZIKV was first detected in Panama and stress the importance of integrating various approaches to enable improved surveillance of both endemic and emerging arboviruses.

SUBMITTER: Eskildsen GA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7204590 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Integrated Arbovirus Surveillance Improves the Detection Onset of Zika Virus in Panama.

Eskildsen Gilberto A GA Kramer Laura D LD Zink Steven D SD Dupuis Alan P AP Wong Susan J SJ Furuya Andrea A Loaiza Jose R JR

The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene 20200501 5

We tested 700 serum samples collected throughout Panama from 2015 to 2016 for detecting antibodies and RNA of arboviruses. In convalescent specimens, microsphere immunoassay detected an antibody prevalence of 59.3% for dengue virus (DENV) and 30.3% for Zika virus (ZIKV), which included samples that were collected before the Panamanian surveillance system reported the first case of Zika in the country. For acute sera, the most common arbovirus was DENV with 18 positive samples (6%), followed by f ...[more]

PMID: 32228787

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Detecting and monitoring the transmission of arboviruses such as Zika virus (ZIKV), dengue virus, and chikungunya virus is critical for prevention and control activities. Previous work has compared the ability of different human-focused surveillance strategies to detect ZIKV transmission in U.S. counties where no known transmission had occurred, but whether virological surveillance in mosquitoes could represent an effective surveillance system is unclear. OBJECTIVES:We leveraged a unique set of data from human and virological surveillance in Ae. aegypti during the 2016 ZIKV epidemic in Caguas, Puerto Rico, to compare alternative strategies for detecting and monitoring ZIKV activity. METHODS:We developed a simulation model for mosquito and human surveillance strategies and simulated different transmission scenarios with varying infection rates and mosquito trap densities. We then calculated the expected weekly number of detected infections, the probability of detecting transmission, and the number of tests needed and compared the simulations with observed data from Caguas. RESULTS:In simulated high transmission scenarios (1 infection per 1,000 people per week), the models demonstrated that both approaches had estimated probabilities of detection of greater than 78%. In simulated low incidence scenarios, vector surveillance had higher sensitivity than human surveillance and sensitivity increased with more traps, more trapping effort, and testing. In contrast, the actual data from Caguas indicated that human virological surveillance was more sensitive than vector virological surveillance during periods of both high and low transmission. CONCLUSION:In scenarios where human surveillance is not possible or when transmission intensity is very low, virological surveillance in Ae. aegypti may be able to detect and monitor ZIKV epidemic activity. However, surveillance for humans seeking care for Zika-like symptoms likely provides an equivalent or more sensitive indicator of transmission intensity in most circumstances.

Project description:Because of the increasing threat that Zika virus (ZIKV) poses to more sub-tropical area due to increased global travel, there is a need for better understanding of the effect(s) of temperature on the establishment potential of ZIKV within these subtropical, temperate, and/or seasonal Ae. aegypti populations. The first step to determining risk establishment of ZIKV in these regions is to assess ZIKV's ability to infect mosquitoes at less tropical temperatures, and thus be detected through common surveillance programs. To that end, the effect of two rearing temperatures (RT) and extrinsic incubation temperatures (EIT) on infection and dissemination rates was evaluated, as well as the interactions of such. Total, there were four combinations (RT24-EIT24, RT24-EIT28, RT28-EIT24, RT28-EIT28). Further, a stochastic SEIR framework was adapted to determine whether observed data could lead to differential success of establishment of ZIKV in naive mosquito populations. There was no consistent pattern in significant differences found across treatments for either infection or dissemination rates (p>0.05), where only a significant difference was found in infection rates between RT24-EIT24 (44%) and RT28-EIT24 (82.6%). Across all temperature conditions, the model predicted between a 76.4% and 95.4% chance of successful establishment of ZIKV in naive mosquito populations under model assumptions. We further show that excluding the maximum observed infection and dissemination rates likely overestimates the probability of local establishment of ZIKV. These results indicate that 1) there is no straightforward relationship between RT, EIT, and infection/dissemination rates, 2) in more temperate climates, ZIKV may still have the ability to establish in populations of Aedes aegypti, 3) despite an overall lack of significant differences in infection/dissemination rates, temperature may still alter the kinetics of ZIKV within the mosquito enough to affect the likelihood of infection establishment and detection within the context of mosquito surveillance programs, and 4) both the temporal and magnitude qualities of vector competence are necessary for parameterization of within-mosquito virus kinetics.

Dataset Information

Integrated Arbovirus Surveillance Improves the Detection Onset of Zika Virus in Panama.

Publications

Integrated Arbovirus Surveillance Improves the Detection Onset of Zika Virus in Panama.

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