Projected impacts of climate change on the range and phenology of three culturally-important shrub species.

ABSTRACT: Climate change is shifting both the habitat suitability and the timing of critical biological events, such as flowering and fruiting, for plant species across the globe. Here, we ask how both the distribution and phenology of three food-producing shrubs native to northwestern North America might shift as the climate changes. To address this question, we compared gridded climate data with species location data to identify climate variables that best predicted the current bioclimatic niches of beaked hazelnut (Corylus cornuta), Oregon grape (Mahonia aquifolium), and salal (Gaultheria shallon). We also developed thermal-sum models for the timing of flowering and fruit ripening for these species. We then used multi-model ensemble future climate projections to estimate how species range and phe

SUBMITTER: Prevey JS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7209123 | biostudies-literature | 2020

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature