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A Framework to Monitor Changes in Transmission and Epidemiology of Emerging Pathogens: Lessons From Nipah Virus.

ABSTRACT: It is of uttermost importance that the global health community develops the surveillance capability to effectively monitor emerging zoonotic pathogens that constitute a major and evolving threat for human health. In this study, we propose a comprehensive framework to measure changes in (1) spillover risk, (2) interhuman transmission, and (3) morbidity/mortality associated with infections based on 6 epidemiological key indicators derived from routine surveillance. We demonstrate the indicators' value for the retrospective or real-time assessment of changes in transmission and epidemiological characteristics using data collected through a long-standing, systematic, hospital-based surveillance system for Nipah virus in Bangladesh. We show that although interhuman transmission and morbidity/mortality indicators were stable, the number and geographic extent of spillovers varied significantly over time. This combination of systematic surveillance and active tracking of transmission and epidemiological indicators should be applied to other high-risk emerging pathogens to prevent public health emergencies.

SUBMITTER: Nikolay B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7213557 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Framework to Monitor Changes in Transmission and Epidemiology of Emerging Pathogens: Lessons From Nipah Virus.

Nikolay Birgit B Salje Henrik H Khan A K M Dawlat AKMD Sazzad Hossain M S HMS Satter Syed M SM Rahman Mahmudur M Doan Stephanie S Knust Barbara B Flora Meerjady Sabrina MS Luby Stephen P SP Cauchemez Simon S Gurley Emily S ES

The Journal of infectious diseases 20200501 Suppl 4

It is of uttermost importance that the global health community develops the surveillance capability to effectively monitor emerging zoonotic pathogens that constitute a major and evolving threat for human health. In this study, we propose a comprehensive framework to measure changes in (1) spillover risk, (2) interhuman transmission, and (3) morbidity/mortality associated with infections based on 6 epidemiological key indicators derived from routine surveillance. We demonstrate the indicators' v ...[more]

PMID: 32392322

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Project description:Since 2001, outbreaks of Nipah virus have occurred almost every year in Bangladesh with high case-fatality rates. Epidemiological data suggest that in Bangladesh, Nipah virus is transmitted from the natural reservoir, fruit bats, to humans via consumption of date palm sap contaminated by bats, with subsequent human-to-human transmission. To experimentally investigate this epidemiological association between drinking of date palm sap and human cases of Nipah virus infection, we determined the viability of Nipah virus (strain Bangladesh/200401066) in artificial palm sap. At 22°C virus titers remained stable for at least 7 days, thus potentially allowing food-borne transmission. Next, we modeled food-borne Nipah virus infection by supplying Syrian hamsters with artificial palm sap containing Nipah virus. Drinking of 5×10⁸ TCID₅₀ of Nipah virus resulted in neurological disease in 5 out of 8 hamsters, indicating that food-borne transmission of Nipah virus can indeed occur. In comparison, intranasal (i.n.) inoculation with the same dose of Nipah virus resulted in lethal respiratory disease in all animals. In animals infected with Nipah virus via drinking, virus was detected in respiratory tissues rather than in the intestinal tract. Using fluorescently labeled Nipah virus particles, we showed that during drinking, a substantial amount of virus is deposited in the lungs, explaining the replication of Nipah virus in the respiratory tract of these hamsters. Besides the ability of Nipah virus to infect hamsters via the drinking route, Syrian hamsters infected via that route transmitted the virus through direct contact with naïve hamsters in 2 out of 24 transmission pairs. Although these findings do not directly prove that date palm sap contaminated with Nipah virus by bats is the origin of Nipah virus outbreaks in Bangladesh, they provide the first experimental support for this hypothesis. Understanding the Nipah virus transmission cycle is essential for preventing and mitigating future outbreaks.

Dataset Information

A Framework to Monitor Changes in Transmission and Epidemiology of Emerging Pathogens: Lessons From Nipah Virus.

Publications

A Framework to Monitor Changes in Transmission and Epidemiology of Emerging Pathogens: Lessons From Nipah Virus.

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