Novel microsimulation model of tobacco use behaviours and outcomes: calibration and validation in a US population.

ABSTRACT:

Background and objective

Simulation models can project effects of tobacco use and cessation and inform tobacco control policies. Most existing tobacco models do not explicitly include relapse, a key component of the natural history of tobacco use. Our objective was to develop, calibrate and validate a novel individual-level microsimulation model that would explicitly include smoking relapse and project cigarette smoking behaviours and associated mortality risks.

Methods

We developed the Simulation of Tobacco and Nicotine Outcomes and Policy (STOP) model, in which individuals transition monthly between tobacco use states (current/former/never) depending on rates of initiation, cessation and relapse. Simulated individuals face tobacco use-stratified mortality risks. For US wom

SUBMITTER: Reddy KP 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7228509 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature