Rainfall anomalies are a significant driver of cropland expansion.

ABSTRACT: Rainfall anomalies have long occupied center stage in policy discussions, and understanding their impacts on agricultural production has become more important as climate change intensifies. However, the global scale of rainfall-induced productivity shocks on changes in cropland is yet to be quantified. Here we identify how rainfall anomalies impact observed patterns of cropped areas at a global scale by leveraging locally determined unexpected variations in rainfall. Employing disaggregated panel data at the grid level, we find that repeated dry anomalies lead to an increase in cropland expansion in developing countries. No discernible effects are detected from repeated wet events. That these effects are confined to developing countries, which are often dominated by small-holder farmers, i

SUBMITTER: Zaveri E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7229679 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature