Project description:We conducted a longitudinal community cohort study of healthy adults in the UK. We found significantly higher incidence of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection in 2010-11 than in 2009-10, a substantial proportion of subclinical infection, and higher risk for infection during 2010-11 among persons with lower preinfection antibody titers.
Project description:During the winter of 2001-02, influenza AH1N2 viruses were detected for the first time in humans in the U.K. The H1N2 viruses co-circulated with H3N2 viruses and a very small number of H1N1 viruses and were isolated in the community and hospitalized patients, predominantly from children <15 years of age. Characterization of H1N2 viruses indicated that they were antigenically and genetically homogeneous, deriving the hemagglutinin (HA) gene from recently circulating A/New Caledonia/20/99-like H1N1 viruses, whereas the other seven genes originated from recently circulating H3N2 viruses. Retrospective reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction analysis of influenza A H1 viruses isolated in the U.K. during the previous winter identified a single H1N2 virus, isolated in March 2001, indicating that H1N2 viruses did not widely circulate in the U.K. before September 2001. The reassortment event is estimated to have occurred between 1999 and early 2001, and the emergence of H1N2 viruses in humans reinforces the need for frequent surveillance of circulating viruses.
Project description:Green spaces may be protective against COVID-19 incidence. They may provide outdoor, ventilated, settings for physical and social activities and therefore decrease transmission risk. We examined the association between neighborhood greenness and COVID-19-like illness incidence using individual-level data.MethodsThe study population includes participants enrolled in the COVID Symptom Study smartphone application in the United Kingdom and the United States (March-November 2020). All participants were encouraged to report their current health condition and suspected risk factors for COVID-19. We used a validated symptom-based classifier that predicts COVID-19-like illness. We estimated the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), for each participant's reported neighborhood of residence for each month, using images from Landsat 8 (30 m2). We used time-varying Cox proportional hazards models stratified by age, country, and calendar month at study entry and adjusted for the individual- and neighborhood-level risk factors.ResultsWe observed 143,340 cases of predicted COVID-19-like illness among 2,794,029 participants. Neighborhood NDVI was associated with a decreased risk of predicted COVID-19-like illness incidence in the fully adjusted model (hazard ratio = 0.965, 95% confidence interval = 0.960, 0.970, per 0.1 NDVI increase). Stratified analyses showed protective associations among U.K. participants but not among U.S. participants. Associations were slightly stronger for White individuals, for individuals living in rural neighborhoods, and for individuals living in high-income neighborhoods compared to individuals living in low-income neighborhoods.ConclusionsHigher levels of greenness may reduce the risk of predicted COVID-19-like illness incidence, but these associations were not observed in all populations.
Project description:Influenza is rarely laboratory-confirmed and the outpatient influenza burden is rarely studied due to a lack of suitable data. We used the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and surveillance data from Public Health England in a linear regression model to assess the number of persons consulting UK general practitioners (GP episodes) for respiratory illness, otitis media and antibiotic prescriptions attributable to influenza during 14 seasons, 1995-2009. In CPRD we ascertained influenza vaccination status in each season and risk status (conditions associated with severe influenza outcomes). Seasonal mean estimates of influenza-attributable GP episodes in the UK were 857 996 for respiratory disease including 68 777 for otitis media, with wide inter-seasonal variability. In an average season, 2·4%/0·5% of children aged <5 years and 1·3%/0·1% of seniors aged ⩾75 years had a GP episode for respiratory illness attributed to influenza A/B. Two-thirds of influenza-attributable GP episodes were estimated to result in prescription of antibiotics. These estimates are substantially greater than those derived from clinically reported influenza-like illness in surveillance programmes. Because health service costs of influenza are largely borne in general practice, these are important findings for cost-benefit assessment of influenza vaccination programmes.
Project description:Projections of cancer incidence are important for planning health services and to provide a baseline for assessing the impact of public health interventions.Rates estimated from smooth function age-period-cohort modelling of cancer incidence data from Great Britain 1975 to 2007 are extrapolated to 2030 and applied to UK population projections. Prostate and breast cancer projections take into account the effect of screening.Overall rates of cancer are projected to be stable over the next 20 years, but this masks individual changes. In both sexes, age-standardised rates of cancers of the stomach, larynx, bladder and leukaemia are projected to fall by ≥1% per year, whereas cancers of the lip, mouth and pharynx (ICD-10 C00-C14) and melanoma are projected to increase by ≥1% per year. The growing and aging populations will have a substantial impact: numbers of cancers in men and women are projected to increase by 55% (from 149,169 to 231,026) and 35% (from 148,716 to 200,929), respectively, between 2007 and 2030. The model used yields similar results to those of Nordpred, but is more flexible.Without new initiatives for smoking and obesity reduction, the number of cancers in the United Kingdom will increase substantially reflecting the growing and aging populations.
Project description:Cicatrising conjunctival disorders are uncommon, and are difficult to diagnose and manage. This study was designed to assess the annual incidence and underlying diagnosis of patients with cicatrising conjunctivitis (CC) within the United Kingdom.Clinical data of newly diagnosed cases of CC were reported via the British Ophthalmological Surveillance Unit at diagnosis and at 12 months follow-up.A total of 50 (61%) ocular mucous membrane pemphigoid (OcMMP), 16 (20%) Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis (SJS-TEN) and 16 (20%) other causes of CC, equating to an incidence of 0.8, 0.2, and 0.2 per million, respectively, were reported. Although diagnosis of SJS-TEN was usually within a median of 7 days of symptom-onset, that for OcMMP and other CC was a median 225 days for both. At diagnosis, 64/163 (39%) eyes had moderate/severe conjunctival inflammation, and 102/164 (62%) had symblepharon formation. Although 43/82 (52%) patients were commenced on immunosuppression or had this therapy modified, at follow-up there was an increase in the number of symblepharon, despite control of inflammation (P<0.001). Mortality only occurred in the SJS-TEN group (4/16 (25%)).CC has a substantial morbidity and for non-SJS-TEN causes, diagnosis is frequently delayed. The proportion of patients given immunosuppressive therapy to prevent disease progression may be less than optimal. These data highlight the need for developing patient access to specialist-designated centres with expertise in CC.
Project description:PurposeSerum lipids are modifiable, routinely collected blood test features associated with cardiovascular health. We examined the association of commonly collected serum lipid measures (total cholesterol [TC], high-density lipoprotein cholesterol [HDL-C], low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], and triglycerides) with intraocular pressure (IOP).DesignCross-sectional study in the UK Biobank and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk cohorts.ParticipantsWe included 94 323 participants from the UK Biobank (mean age, 57 years) and 6230 participants from the EPIC-Norfolk (mean age, 68 years) cohorts with data on TC, HDL-C, LDL-C, and triglycerides collected between 2006 and 2009.MethodsMultivariate linear regression adjusting for demographic, lifestyle, anthropometric, medical, and ophthalmic covariables was used to examine the associations of serum lipids with corneal-compensated IOP (IOPcc).Main outcome measuresCorneal-compensated IOP.ResultsHigher levels of TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C were associated independently with higher IOPcc in both cohorts after adjustment for key demographic, medical, and lifestyle factors. For each 1-standard deviation increase in TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C, IOPcc was higher by 0.09 mmHg (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.06-0.11 mmHg; P < 0.001), 0.11 mmHg (95% CI, 0.08-0.13 mmHg; P < 0.001), and 0.07 mmHg (95% CI, 0.05-0.09 mmHg; P < 0.001), respectively, in the UK Biobank cohort. In the EPIC-Norfolk cohort, each 1-standard deviation increase in TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C was associated with a higher IOPcc by 0.19 mmHg (95% CI, 0.07-0.31 mmHg; P = 0.001), 0.14 mmHg (95% CI, 0.03-0.25 mmHg; P = 0.016), and 0.17 mmHg (95% CI, 0.06-0.29 mmHg; P = 0.003). An inverse association between triglyceride levels and IOP in the UK Biobank (-0.05 mmHg; 95% CI, -0.08 to -0.03; P < 0.001) was not replicated in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort (P = 0.30).ConclusionsOur findings suggest that serum TC, HDL-C, and LDL-C are associated positively with IOP in 2 United Kingdom cohorts and that triglyceride levels may be associated negatively. Future research is required to assess whether these associations are causal in nature.
Project description:BackgroundEstimations of Lyme disease incidence rates in the United Kingdom vary. There is evidence that this disease is associated with fatigue in its early stage but reports are contradictory as far as long-term fatigue is concerned.Methods and findingsA population-based historical cohort study was conducted on patients treated in general practices contributing to IQVIA Medical Research Data: 2,130 patients with a first diagnosis of Lyme disease between 2000 and 2018 and 8,510 randomly-sampled patients matched by age, sex, and general practice, followed-up for a median time of 3 years and 8 months. Main outcome measure was time to consultation for (1) any fatigue-related symptoms or diagnosis; or (2) myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from Cox models. Average incidence rate for Lyme disease across the UK was 5.18 per 100,000 person-years, increasing from 2.55 in 2000 to 9.33 in 2018. In total, 929 events of any types of fatigue were observed, leading to an incidence rate of 307.90 per 10,000 person-years in the Lyme cohort (282 events) and 165.60 in the comparator cohort (647 events). Effect of Lyme disease on any subsequent fatigue varied by index season: adjusted HRs were the highest in autumn and winter with 3.14 (95%CI: 1.92-5.13) and 2.23 (1.21-4.11), respectively. For ME/CFS, 17 events were observed in total. Incidence rates were 11.76 per 10,000 person-years in Lyme patients (12 events) and 1.20 in comparators (5 events), corresponding to an adjusted HR of 16.95 (5.17-55.60). Effects were attenuated 6 months after diagnosis but still clearly visible.ConclusionsUK primary care records provided strong evidence that Lyme disease was associated with subsequent fatigue and ME/CFS. Albeit weaker on the long-term, these effects persisted beyond 6 months, suggesting patients and healthcare providers should remain alert to fatigue symptoms months to years following Lyme disease diagnosis.
Project description:The Illumina Infinium 27k Human DNA methylation Beadchip v1.2 was used to obtain DNA methylation profiles across approximately 27,000 CpGs in whole blood samples from 540 samples, of which 266 were samples taken from postmenopausal women with ovarian cancer and 274 were from age-matched healthy controls Keywords: DNA methylation