Eliminating yellow fever epidemics in Africa: Vaccine demand forecast and impact modelling.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To counter the increasing global risk of Yellow fever (YF), the World Health Organisation initiated the Eliminate Yellow fever Epidemics (EYE) strategy. Estimating YF burden, as well as vaccine impact, while accounting for the features of urban YF transmission such as indirect benefits of vaccination, is key to informing this strategy.

Methods and findings

We developed two model variants to estimate YF burden in sub-Saharan Africa, assuming all infections stem from either the sylvatic or the urban cycle of the disease. Both relied on an ecological niche model fitted to the local presence of any YF reported event in 34 African countries. We calibrated under-reporting using independent estimates of transmission intensity provided by 12 serological surveys performed

SUBMITTER: Jean K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7237041 | biostudies-literature | 2020 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature