The time scale of asymptomatic transmission affects estimates of epidemic potential in the COVID-19 outbreak.

ABSTRACT: The role of asymptomatic carriers in transmission poses challenges for control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Study of asymptomatic transmission and implications for surveillance and disease burden are ongoing, but there has been little study of the implications of asymptomatic transmission on dynamics of disease. We use a mathematical framework to evaluate expected effects of asymptomatic transmission on the basic reproduction number R0 (i.e., the expected number of secondary cases generated by an average primary case in a fully susceptible population) and the fraction of new secondary cases attributable to asymptomatic individuals. If the generation-interval distribution of asymptomatic transmission differs from that of symptomatic transmission, then estimates of the basic reproduction number

SUBMITTER: Park SW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7239084 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature