Estimation of the Excess COVID-19 Cases in Seoul, South Korea by the Students Arriving from China.

ABSTRACT: Background: In March 2020, overall, 37,000 international students from China, a country at risk of the 2019-novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection has arrived in Seoul, South Korea. Individuals from the country at risk of COVID-19 infection have been included in the Korean home-quarantine program, but the efficacy of the program is uncertain. Methods: To estimate the possible number of infected individuals within the large influx of international students from China, we used a deterministic compartmental model for epidemic and performed a simulation-based search of different rates of compliance with home-quarantine. Results: Under the home-quarantine program, the number of the infected individuals would reach 40-72 from 12 March-24 March with the arrival of 0.2% of pre-infectious individua

SUBMITTER: Ryu S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7246702 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature